Domestic and foreign potash price increases, the price of nitrogen phosphate fertilizer is stable

      Date：2017-09-17

       This week's larger product: liquid chlorine (shandong), 21.4%; Potassium chloride (vancouver), 9.3%; HenryHub gas, 7.7%; Nitric acid (98%, long triangle), 7.3%; Pure alkali (light weight, east China), 5.4%.

       This week's biggest fall in products: acrylate (shenyang wax), -12.1%; Acetic anhydride (jiangsu danhua), -7.4%; Acrylic (shenyang wax), -5.8 %; Acetic acid (east China), -5.7%, ethylene oxide (liaoyang petrochemical), -5.6%.

       The export window is approaching, domestic nitrogen phosphate fertilizer is stable and rising. This week, the price of domestic nitrogen phosphate fertilizer is stable, and the price of urea and ammonium phosphate are up 4.8 percent and 1.8 percent year-on-year respectively. The current price is 2,200 and 3,275 yuan per ton respectively. Urea, dap will be brought into effect in June, July the export rate of 7% (export price higher than the benchmark rate will rise), the current price level, the corresponding number of urea, dap prices compared to domestic about 8% higher, respectively, 8% (not considering the freight), enterprise exports more profitable. Signed with India is the current domestic companies have a total of 970000 tons of diammonium export contract (including the sky group, 400000 tons of KaiLin 220000 tons, 200000 tons of east st.) and pricing are CFR612 dollars/ton.

       Both domestic and foreign potash prices have been raised. Recent potash price goods market is tight young situation both at home and abroad, this week in vancouver potassium chloride high-end prices rose 9.3% to $470 / ton, the BPC is the price of potassium chloride with Brazil will again raise $30 a tonne to CFR550 - $560, at the same time there are rumors that India big contract price will be $450 / ton; Domestically, salt lake shares for the second time this month to raise prices, 95% potassium chloride current station price of 3100 yuan/ton (a rise of 100 yuan/ton) in the last week, the current domestic potassium chloride transport problems still, shortage of local market situation is relatively serious, but the overall domestic market wait-and-see mood is thicker, traders and manufacturers are awaiting the results of a large contract negotiations.

       Domestic phosphate rock prices overall increase. Whole rise this week, the domestic price of phosphate rock, which larger pricing in hubei region, rose by an average of 20 to 40 yuan/ton, the yichang region around 30% ore planking price of 480 yuan/ton, and the price of guizhou, yunnan and other regions are better progressly. We believe that the export tariff of phosphate fertilizer is approaching, the enterprise starts to start to rise, and the water transport capacity is tight, so the regional imbalance in the supply of phosphate ore is the main reason for the price increase.

       Wanhua released the June MDI offer. Yantai wanhua this week released in June of pure MDI (barrel), polymerization MDI listing price respectively is 22400, 18000 yuan/ton, compared with the previous month cut 800 yuan/ton, we believe that with the downstream demand gradually into the off-season, MDI listing price cut is a normal phenomenon (basf polymeric MDI in the second half may listing price is 16800 yuan/ton, down 1400 yuan/ton) compared with the first half, with subsequent season in August, the MDI market demand and price can still look forward to.

       The price of soda continues to rise. The price of light soda in east China rose 5.4 per cent to rmb1,950 per tonne this week, a gain of 31.8 per cent a month. Due to the gap will be more obvious after the summer, under the background of the soda ash supplies will hold periodic tension, and downstream industries such as glass into the peak season demand, we expect the soda ash prices will remain high.

       Short-term investment perspective: this week the international crude oil, natural rubber, cotton and other commodities continued weak pattern, domestic chemical products prices overall decline, and with supply gradually restored, hype emotional low tide, acetic acid, methyl ethyl ketone, early strength varieties prices have dropped sharply, we think the raw material of the subsequent earnings will depend on the specific sector of supply and demand situation. In addition, ammonium phosphate and urea will be implemented from June and July respectively, and we will pay attention to the corresponding effects. Due to the strong energy limit in summer, the integrated enterprises in high energy consumption industries deserve attention. Investment point of view, focus on earnings prospects to the great salt lake potash fertilizer (k), poetic lu the hengsheng chemical (soda), China (nitrogen), hubei YiHua (n, p), as well as the investment value of tong has revealed he shares (polyester filament), yantai wanhua (MDI), and Yang agriculture chemical, Rowe (pesticides), etc.